Finally, it's over. The great Indian election saga comes to an end. The 15th General elections was a mammoth exercise and the world is amazed how we continue to deliver smoothly election after election. Indeed, the enormity of operational scale involved is mind-boggling. This is Indian democracy at it's vibrant best.
And what a verdict Indian electorate has delivered. Against all expectations, we have got a clear mandate for Cong+. The credit for this should go as much to Rahul Gandhi, Manmohan Singh & team as to the BJP for failing to focus the campaign on the right agenda. Consider the backdrop of these elections; the world economy at an all time low since the "Great Depression", Indian GDP growth rate on a downward spiral(~6%), high unemployment rate(~9%), inflation rate (~1%), stock exchanges hitting rock bottom(BSE <8000)>
1. Rahul Gandhi's focus on reviving the socio-economic plank;making the party stronger at grass root level and connecting to the "aam admi".
2. Youth Factor- Again Rahul, Priyanka and some of the next gen congress leaders like Jyotiraditya, Murli Deora contribute towards a youthful image for the party, More importantly, the young electorate can connect to them and they believe that these leaders can really take the country forward.
2. Manmohan Singh's clean image.
3. Articulating the pro-poor effects of nuclear deal.
4. BJPs inability to focus on issues of development, economy, terrorism during the campaign. They got sucked into personality war between Advani & Manmohan Singh. Often, they were left clarifying on the current & future prime ministerial candidates, endless debates on secularism vs communalism, whether the allies "are" or "are not" with them. Unfortunately, the real issues got buried down.
Now, it’s really up to the Manmohan-Rahul combine to make the best use of this clear mandate. I say Manmohan-Rahul because I believe Rahul will take over in the mid-term. A lot needs to be done regarding the unfinished agenda. Here’s what we can look forward to:
a. PSU disinvestment
b. Increased FDI in Retail, Insurance
c. Halt to Administrative Pricing mechanism in Oil sector?
d. Push to infrastructure projects – Low income housing, Airports, Ports
e. Progress on nuclear deal
f. Reforms in health care
g. Making rural economy stronger and much more.
Quite clearly, Mr. Advani is headed towards the sunset. An inglorious end to a successful political career. I just think the dessert was missing in what was a sumptuous feast. Now it's really up to the second rung leadership to take front stage. The Vajpayee-Advani era is over. Do the Modi's, Jaitley's et al have in them to face the challenge from the youth brigade. I believe that BJP needs to identify the next "Vajpayee-Advani" combo and to me it looks like "Jaitley-Modi" sounds good. The pairing hierarchy is important. Yes, contrary to what is being projected i think Jaitley has to be the face of BJP leaving the core backstage to Modi. No party in India can come to power on the basis of hardline religious or sectarian agenda. And this is because most Indians are secular in nature. India just loves Centre; Centre right or Centre left is tolerable but swings to the extreme are intolerable.
The Indian voter has delivered a very simple and crisp message - "Good governance pays" and it doesn't matter who delivers that - Congress, BJP, JD-U or anyone else as long as it is delivered. And this governance has to be visible both at the local as well as national level.
Wake up political parties the Indian voter just got more demanding!!
Now given this backdrop it's a recipe for a change;you don't have to do really much to get the anti-incumbency vote. But, look at how Congress managed to counter this and come out stronger. This is really an excellent example of turning adversity into opportunity.
So what were the key success factors for Cong+:
1. Rahul Gandhi's focus on reviving the socio-economic plank;making the party stronger at grass root level and connecting to the "aam admi".
2. Youth Factor- Again Rahul, Priyanka and some of the next gen congress leaders like Jyotiraditya, Murli Deora contribute towards a youthful image for the party, More importantly, the young electorate can connect to them and they believe that these leaders can really take the country forward.
2. Manmohan Singh's clean image.
3. Articulating the pro-poor effects of nuclear deal.
4. BJPs inability to focus on issues of development, economy, terrorism during the campaign. They got sucked into personality war between Advani & Manmohan Singh. Often, they were left clarifying on the current & future prime ministerial candidates, endless debates on secularism vs communalism, whether the allies "are" or "are not" with them. Unfortunately, the real issues got buried down.
Now, it’s really up to the Manmohan-Rahul combine to make the best use of this clear mandate. I say Manmohan-Rahul because I believe Rahul will take over in the mid-term. A lot needs to be done regarding the unfinished agenda. Here’s what we can look forward to:
a. PSU disinvestment
b. Increased FDI in Retail, Insurance
c. Halt to Administrative Pricing mechanism in Oil sector?
d. Push to infrastructure projects – Low income housing, Airports, Ports
e. Progress on nuclear deal
f. Reforms in health care
g. Making rural economy stronger and much more.
And what about the BJP now?
Quite clearly, Mr. Advani is headed towards the sunset. An inglorious end to a successful political career. I just think the dessert was missing in what was a sumptuous feast. Now it's really up to the second rung leadership to take front stage. The Vajpayee-Advani era is over. Do the Modi's, Jaitley's et al have in them to face the challenge from the youth brigade. I believe that BJP needs to identify the next "Vajpayee-Advani" combo and to me it looks like "Jaitley-Modi" sounds good. The pairing hierarchy is important. Yes, contrary to what is being projected i think Jaitley has to be the face of BJP leaving the core backstage to Modi. No party in India can come to power on the basis of hardline religious or sectarian agenda. And this is because most Indians are secular in nature. India just loves Centre; Centre right or Centre left is tolerable but swings to the extreme are intolerable.
The Indian voter has delivered a very simple and crisp message - "Good governance pays" and it doesn't matter who delivers that - Congress, BJP, JD-U or anyone else as long as it is delivered. And this governance has to be visible both at the local as well as national level.
Wake up political parties the Indian voter just got more demanding!!
Sameer
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