The financial meltdown: Are you ready for change ?

It's been around one and a half month since the news about the fall of Lehmann brothers. That news itself was astounding to put it very mildly. What followed has been a nightmare given that many more financial icons have gone bust, few countries are on the verge of bankruptcy (Iceland, Pakistan, Ukraine, Belarus etc). Many of us do not have a first hand account of the "Great Depression" in 1929 but from what we can "Google" the comparison is inevitable though unwarranted. However, the big difference today is as Thomas Friedman says "The world is Flat". In a global economy the decoupling theory just doesn't seem to be working. All the major economies (US, Europe, Japan, Chindia) seem like four wheels of a car - so interdependent on one another. The biggest aftermath of this financial meltdown could well be the way we have known America to be. I believe this is an amazingly disruptive event in the history of US. The US economy will shrink, the political clout will reduce; the financial crisis may well signal the beginning of the end of USA as an economic superpower. I believe we are in a transient stage of economic power shift to CHINDIA.
Coming to India, we too are feeling the pain. The rupee is at its lowest rate, the stock markets just hit a new low few days ago, the Assocham news report that 25% employees will be laid off in India is disconcerting and the consumer confidence is at an all time low. However, on the positive side inflation is reducing (10.68% as on date), the interest rates are bound to reduce, crude has reached around $66 from a high of ~$148.
How really do we survive ?
First of all, we need to value the money we spend in corporate business just like our own savings. Let me elaborate with an example; When we shop for personal goods like car, mobile, clothes, AC , other household goods etc..don't we bargain to get the best deal. We really want value for our money. Now equate this with corporate spending. Are you spending the corporate money in the same way ? Do you think twice before spending on entertainment, office expenses, group lunch, conferences, phone calls etc. ? Are we looking at value for money in the corporate scenario ? I trust many of us don't !
The other things are quite simple. The good old fashioned socialism is back in vogue. Moderation is the key. Get into cash conservation mode. Just defer that vacation plan or a car purchase. Somehow, i feel that we have outgrown some of our own desires. We need three cars when there is a need for one, three homes - one for living, one future home and one as investment, need to change the mobile phone every six months (sprinkled with Blackberry & iphone), three or four vacations in a year etc.. etc...the list goes on.

My friends the whole crisis is a manifestation of corporate & consumer greed !! Alas, we have come a full circle! At this time i can only remember the phrase "..This too shall pass" and i leave you with this beautiful song..http://in.youtube.com/watch?v=6olU1D70eys

Sameer Tikoo

"Ashes" of the modern era: A preview

A few hours from now India vs Australia test cricket series shall commence. Already a lot has happened before the series begins. The biggest news, of course, being the retirement of India's most successful captain - Sourav Ganguly, after the test series. I feel that Sourav has taken a very wise decision and set a great precedent. He has again shown great leadership skills and led from the front. For me Sourav's captaincy was the turning point of the Indian cricket. The kind of positive aggresion he created, the ability to make the team play like a cohesive unit and the way he backed up the junior cricketers like Sehwag, Yuvraj, Bhajji etc. at that point of time changed the face of Indian cricket. Before Sourav's era, the team was a bunch of individuals who were more obsessed with records resulting in flashes of individual brilliance. Sourav taught us how to win and make winning a habit ! Of the fab four, if you ask me whose contribution is greatest to the Indian cricket, undoubtedly it is Sourav Ganguly, though i'm a huge fan of Sachin's mastery, Rahul's composure and Laxman's class. As Rahul Dravid famously said "..First there is God on off side and then there's Sourav.." This holds good not only for his batting on the off side but also for his leadership skills. Sourav, may you bid adieu on a high note !

Now back to the "Ashes" of the modern era, Gavaskar-Border series. The pre-series verbal volleys seem to be largely muted which is very much against a typical Australian side. Obviously, without Warne, Mcgrath and Gilchrist this team is weaker than the teams that have toured India for the last 7-8 years. However, they are still the world champions. Their strength is their strong fast bowling line up with Lee spearheading the attack. The argument that they have a very weak spin attack does not matter much because we all know what happened to Warne in India. Given the venues where the matches are going to be played should be spin friendly except Mohali, the Aussies are at a disadvantage. They would rely heavily on the batting prowess of Hayden, Hussey & Clarke to counter the spin attack from India. I believe Clarke & Hussey are the one's to watch out for in this series. The Australian strategy would also be to dry up the runs for Indian stroke-players especially the likes of Sehwag. It might well turn out to be a test of endurance for Indian batsmen who like to get the runs in boundary's.

From an Indian standpoint i see an over dependence on the spin duo to get 20 wickets. Besides, the Australians have been playing them for a long time and have got quite used to them. I'm sure they are still a handful though. However, it would have been good to pick up Piyush Chawla in the side. A third spinner with a certain novelty factor could prove to be quite useful. From a batting perspective, the fab four would be under tremendous pressure to deliver, given their showing in the Sri Lanka series. I think Sehwag & Bhajji hold the key for India. A few more hours for the gruelling battle to begin.
Let me stick my neck out and predict a result....it's 2-1 to India !!

Sameer