Friday, December 25, 2009

A 20hr flight worth a life

Have you ever been on a 20 hr flight? And yes, with no breaks, and no transfers. I happened to be on a flight from New Delhi to Newark this weekend which turned out to be a 20 hr journey. But, at the end of it we were left with a strange sense of fulfillment.

“We have a medical emergency on the flight. The flight is being diverted to Stockholm” announced the flight attendant. I woke up as these words started ringing into my ears. My first reaction was a very confusing one. I didn’t know how to react. I was trying to find out what was the medical emergency. At the same time I was disgusted at the thought of more delays on a 14hr flight which had already started with a 3hr delay. As the plane landed in Stockholm I saw a good 6-12” snow covering on the runway. It was pitch dark outside and the landing amidst snow made a great sight. This did help in soothing my ruffled feathers due to the delays. I was even wondering if we could set out and just play with the snow. However, we were instructed to be seated on the plane. I looked around to see the source of the medical emergency. I saw a boy around 5-6 yrs old having respiratory problems. There was a sense of concern and anxiety in general. There were a couple of passengers who were either doctors or had some background in medical emergencies. They were helping the boy. The parents of this boy were, to my surprise, very composed. Soon the paramedics arrived and the boy along with family was taken out. We heard that that the boy was doing better. There was a big applause and a huge sense of relief.

I saw great bonding among people of different countries, communities and diverse background on the plane. People exchanging thoughts on how to treat the medical problem, the need to exercise restraint and have patience, parents pacifying infants and more. How easy it was to unite for a cause? Effortless, I would say. Many of us would have missed important business meetings, connecting flights and much more. However, just to be a part of a life saving experience like this was something very unique. A lot of credit for saving the kid goes to the airlines but it was good to see the people rally around. A human life is still valued and we do think alike even though we are different.

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Bringing a smile on your face !

It was post lunch session – I was feeling slow as a snail. Someone tapped on the door of my office. I looked up and it was Ajay, from our HR department. He had an envelope in his hand. The contents of the envelope seemed a little grumpy to me. I was wondering what was there in the envelope even before the conversation began. The conversation just lasted a few seconds. He just said the instructions were on the back of the envelope. I read the instructions and started acting on it. I called one person into my office, her name was Sheetal. Sheetal sat quietly, inquisitiveness obvious in her eyes. I handed over the envelope to her and asked her to open it. As she opened the envelope I could see a wave of emotions. From inquisitiveness to fear, fear to excitement and excitement to a beaming smile, smile turned into joy, joy into happiness and then a sense of gratitude.

Sheetal had just won an IPOD for being the most outstanding performer in the team!

It was an amazing experience for me. Such an array of emotions, visible from very close quarters, left me astounded. Sometimes we try very hard to bring similes on the face of our friends, family, and colleagues but fail to do so. Here I was, witnessing palpable joy on the face of a person from a small gift – an IPOD
I was wondering what was responsible for making Sheetal so happy. Was it the IPOD? Was it the sense of achievement or a feeling of recognition? Yes, you never know what makes a person feel happy. Happiness could mean different things to different people.

The thought that came to my mind was “positive surprise”. Many times people anticipate they will get rewarded for something that they have done. But, to get something positive when it is unexpected is a different feeling altogether.

Ask yourself when was the last time you got a “positive surprise”? Just try to relive the moment.

And how about giving a positive surprise to someone today.

Go hug your wife when you return home. Spend 30 minutes of quality time with your parents. Take your team out for a coffee when there is no event to celebrate. Prepare morning tea for your family. Take a half day leave from office and catch an afternoon movie with your wife.

The possibilities are endless. Just be the harbinger of positive surprises and feel the difference.

Sunday, June 7, 2009

Are we heading towards an unflat world?

In the recent past, I have heard this question cropping up at various forums. As a rejoinder to Thomas Friedman’s bestseller “The world is Flat”, people have suddenly started talking about the “unflat” world. The question certainly is relevant given some of the events across the world. Obama initiated tax measures favoring companies who retain jobs in US. We have also witnessed a backlash in Australia against the Indian students. Having observed these recent events my very simple and short answer to the “unflat” world query is NO. To substantiate my argument I would like to go back to the original premise of how the world became flat. As Thomas Friedman highlighted in his classic, the world became flat essentially due to following:

1. Technology
2. Tools, Skills, Processes
3. People (read BRICS) with emphasis on CHINDIA

And since the book was written there are many more flatteners like You Tube, Facebook, 3G, just to highlight a few. Now, for the world to unflatten, you really need to undo the above. For a moment, just give a thought to the above flatteners. Is it really possible to undo the above? No, not really. At the most what you can do is have some curbs like the H1B visa in USA, tighten the immigration rules, protect sensitive sectors like Defence, Banking, change regulations related to import/export. The economic crisis may lead to a slew of protectionist measures in the short-term. However, the longer it continues more counterproductive it will be for countries like USA.

Take for instance the recent happenings in Australia. The Indian students are being attacked as the common man in Australia feels the pinch of job losses. The students are being attacked by the people who are hit hardest - part timers who work at cafes, gas stations and other stores. The Indian students are competing directly with this class of Australian workforce and have thus become prime targets. And this reaction, though extreme, is natural. If I go back to the Maslow’s hierarchy, these people are unable to meet their physiological needs and hence the extreme reaction. Should the Australian govt. send back Indian (also students from other countries) students? Now that would be a real un-flattener. But, does it make economic sense.

Let’s take a look at the following data.


Around 100,000 Indian students went to Australia last year (more than USA). In the process, they added $12 billion to the Australian economy. Can Australia afford to let go this amount? The point is that there are countries (US, Australia, UK, Canada etc) that have become so flat that their survival is now dependent on being flat. They have gone way ahead to undo what has already happened. And this flat world is not necessarily bad for them.

What America and other developed nations need is a process of nation building. A lot of introspection and action is needed by the developed world to stay competitive in the new world order. The nation needs to move up the value chain. This means more investment in science and technology, energy conservation and alternate sources of energy. It also means continuous upgradation of skills, a revisit of the education system.

I also advocate adaptability as a core skill to acquire not only at a personal level, but also, for a nation. To exemplify, let’s look at India. Not so many years ago we were an agriculture dependent economy. The fear of monsoon was so huge that it would make or mar our fortunes. In a few years we have now become a service oriented economy (~60% of GDP) with agriculture contributing less than 20% of GDP. Twenty years ago hardly a few of us would have seen a computer. We have invested in education, technology, language skills and associated infrastructure to create an army of skilled engineers, technicians and call center professionals. Even in this deep economic crisis we are growing at around 5-6% (second only to China). Truly, India has arrived and how!

The developed world now needs the world to stay flat now, than ever before. The world economies are more connected than they ever were. In a globalized world, organizations cannot afford to work in an isolated environment. Organizations look forward to provide value to their customers by producing the right product, at right cost, at right location and selling the same to the right market at right price. A very simple example I would like to quote is of a mobile phone e.g. Nokia –perhaps a device without which our lives are unimaginable. If you look at the value chain of a mobile phone, the R&D could be done in Finland, Manufacturing in India, Sales & Marketing in respective markets across the globe and service wherever the phone is sold. Imagine doing this in an unflat world. This could mean Nokia doing all the activities of a value chain in a single country say Finland. Is this feasible?

The choice for America and other developed nations is clear; either you remain in a walled garden oblivious of what is happening around you or you move out and embrace the new world order with open arms.


Sameer Tikoo

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Saluting Indian Democracy

Finally, it's over. The great Indian election saga comes to an end. The 15th General elections was a mammoth exercise and the world is amazed how we continue to deliver smoothly election after election. Indeed, the enormity of operational scale involved is mind-boggling. This is Indian democracy at it's vibrant best.
And what a verdict Indian electorate has delivered. Against all expectations, we have got a clear mandate for Cong+. The credit for this should go as much to Rahul Gandhi, Manmohan Singh & team as to the BJP for failing to focus the campaign on the right agenda. Consider the backdrop of these elections; the world economy at an all time low since the "Great Depression", Indian GDP growth rate on a downward spiral(~6%), high unemployment rate(~9%), inflation rate (~1%), stock exchanges hitting rock bottom(BSE <8000)>
Now given this backdrop it's a recipe for a change;you don't have to do really much to get the anti-incumbency vote. But, look at how Congress managed to counter this and come out stronger. This is really an excellent example of turning adversity into opportunity.
So what were the key success factors for Cong+:

1. Rahul Gandhi's focus on reviving the socio-economic plank;making the party stronger at grass root level and connecting to the "aam admi".
2. Youth Factor- Again Rahul, Priyanka and some of the next gen congress leaders like Jyotiraditya, Murli Deora contribute towards a youthful image for the party, More importantly, the young electorate can connect to them and they believe that these leaders can really take the country forward.
2. Manmohan Singh's clean image.
3. Articulating the pro-poor effects of nuclear deal.
4. BJPs inability to focus on issues of development, economy, terrorism during the campaign. They got sucked into personality war between Advani & Manmohan Singh. Often, they were left clarifying on the current & future prime ministerial candidates, endless debates on secularism vs communalism, whether the allies "are" or "are not" with them. Unfortunately, the real issues got buried down.

Now, it’s really up to the Manmohan-Rahul combine to make the best use of this clear mandate. I say Manmohan-Rahul because I believe Rahul will take over in the mid-term. A lot needs to be done regarding the unfinished agenda. Here’s what we can look forward to:
a. PSU disinvestment
b. Increased FDI in Retail, Insurance
c. Halt to Administrative Pricing mechanism in Oil sector?
d. Push to infrastructure projects – Low income housing, Airports, Ports
e. Progress on nuclear deal
f. Reforms in health care
g. Making rural economy stronger and much more.
And what about the BJP now?

Quite clearly, Mr. Advani is headed towards the sunset. An inglorious end to a successful political career. I just think the dessert was missing in what was a sumptuous feast. Now it's really up to the second rung leadership to take front stage. The Vajpayee-Advani era is over. Do the Modi's, Jaitley's et al have in them to face the challenge from the youth brigade. I believe that BJP needs to identify the next "Vajpayee-Advani" combo and to me it looks like "Jaitley-Modi" sounds good. The pairing hierarchy is important. Yes, contrary to what is being projected i think Jaitley has to be the face of BJP leaving the core backstage to Modi. No party in India can come to power on the basis of hardline religious or sectarian agenda. And this is because most Indians are secular in nature. India just loves Centre; Centre right or Centre left is tolerable but swings to the extreme are intolerable.

The Indian voter has delivered a very simple and crisp message - "Good governance pays" and it doesn't matter who delivers that - Congress, BJP, JD-U or anyone else as long as it is delivered. And this governance has to be visible both at the local as well as national level.
Wake up political parties the Indian voter just got more demanding!!
Sameer

Saturday, March 7, 2009

MVNOs in India: Spicing up the Telecom Market

Introduction
Economic slowdown, meltdown, recession, depression, and stimulus packages - these are some of the most popular keyword searches these days on the Internet. Amidst all this we know that India added 15 million+ mobile subscribers in January’09. This is an all time high subscriber additions in India and perhaps the world in a single month. The story has been similar for Q3 2008 with around 9-10 million subscribers added each month. The scorching pace at which the India telecom story marches ahead is a silver lining amidst dark clouds hanging over the overall economy.

The department of telecommunications (DoT), on Feb 25th 209 permitted Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNO) to provide services in India. MVNOs are companies that do not own spectrum or license to offer services. They lease radio frequency from mobile service providers and sell services under their own brand. Essentially, they buy minutes of usage (MOU) in bulk from the service provider (also referred to as mobile network provider or operator). The telecom infrastructure may also be completely leased or the MVNOs can build up their own infrastructure at least partially. In very simple terms the relationship is like a wholesaler & a retailer. The typical value chain of an MVNO is depicted below:
(sorry issues in pasting picture here)

Depending on what they own in the telecom value chain MVNOs can be categorized as following:
a. Full MVNO
Typically, has its own network elements (MSC, HLR, VLR) and performs all other downstream value chain activities like Distribution, Marketing, Cusomer Care (includes billing)
b. Intermediate MVNO
Typically, shares some of the network infrastructure with the service provider and performs all other downstream activities.
c. Thin MVNO
Typically, does not own any network infrastructure. Focus is on leveraging the strengths in distribution and brand management.

Licensing Norms
India’s Telecom Commission has set $17.02 million as the price for MVNO license in India. The Commission also confirms pre-defined fees an operator will have to pay for individual service area of 10% of the amount that UASL holders pay. MVNO licenses for the A category will cost $1 million whereas category B and C circles will be priced at $0.60 million and $0.20 million respectively. MVNOs will also have to pay spectrum charges and a bank guarantee equivalent to 5% of the amount paid by the full network operators.

Now let’s look at the opportunities and the challenges the entry of MVNOs in India could throw up.
Opportunities

Increase in Mobile Penetration
At around 360+ million mobile subscribers the mobile penetration is around 30%. Most developed nations have a penetration close to 100% (a few have more than 100% as well). Given these statistics it is evident that there is still lot of headroom to grow for the telecom service providers. We are already aware that a vast majority of the new subscribers being added are coming from tier2/tier3 cities and rural areas. The argument for MVNOs is that they can help expanding into these markets rapidly. As most MVNO are going to be focused on offering services at attractive prices India could reach its 500 million subscriber target by 2010 pretty early and the tele-density can increase significantly in next few years.


Diversification
For those companies who wanted to venture into telecom but could not do so earlier due to the entry barriers associated with high spectrum cost this could be a golden opportunity. As the international experience shows many MVNOs are companies who have diversified from other businesses leveraging their strong brand, distribution channels and other such strengths. In India too there could be companies from FMCG (e.g. ITC), retail (e.g. Big Bazaar) and other sectors who want to leverage their strong brands, distribution network, understanding of the rural consumers, and past relationships to forge a new connect.


Horizontal & Vertical Integration
In terms of horizontal integration there are opportunities for the existing telecom operators to launch services as MVNOs in areas where they do not have a license or provide services across different technology viz. CDMA operator offering GSM service or GSM operator offering CDMA service.
The telecom ecosystem comprising of handset players (e.g. Nokia, Samsung), service providers (e.g. Airtel), VAS players (OnMobile, 197 communications), OS providers (Microsoft, Google) is itself going through a great game of one-upmanship. The service providers are still holding forte as they are closer to the customers and are the ones who own the so called “pipe” to the customer. Given this, MVNOs offer an opportunity for some of the players in the ecosystem to integrate vertically and venture into service provider’s domain. For instance, the VAS players who have long been unhappy with the revenue sharing agreement with the service providers (70-80% of the VAS revenue is retained by the service provider whereas 20-30% goes to the VAS players. This 20-30% is further distributed among the players which make up the VAS value chain). This really takes the fight into enemy’s camp and could result in strapping of the delicate chord which binds together the players in this ecosystem.

Challenges
Increased Competition
Irrespective of the bonhomie associated with the subscriber growth in India, telecom operators face significant challenges. These are low ARPUs, high CAPEX & OPEX, providing differentiated services at reasonable cost and essentially losing out on competitive advantage. MVNOs are just going to add to these challenges. True, MVNOs may help penetrate the markets further but it will surely lead to a bloody price war. Already, we offer the cheapest tariff in the world at less than 2 cents per minute. How many operators can maintain profitability and sustain that in the long run given that tariffs are surely south bound? And all those who are ready to tell me that 3G is in the offing, time will come when VAS will show its true colors and so on, don’t forget this is an extremely price sensitive market and our next 100 million customers and beyond are going to come from rural areas.


Entry Barriers
Given the licensing norms highlighted above I don’t perceive too many entry barriers from a monetary perspective. However, how do you overcome the “mind barrier”? How many companies would be willing to take the plunge in this economic turmoil in an apparent low margin business?

Strategy & Business Models
Alright let’s hope there are a few brave companies who take the plunge. Now what sort of strategy they should adopt. A mere price leadership or low cost strategy will not be sustainable. And if they come up with a focused or differentiated strategy then which customer segments will they focus on? What kind of different offering they have which the existing service providers don’t have or cannot have? These sort of questions really intrigue me.

Cannibalization
MVNOs will after all be buying airtime in bulk from existing service providers. Hence, there’s always a trusted relationship between the two. However, both are still eating from the same pie. Will this not lead to cannibalization of market share?


Recently, Sunil Mittal said that MVNOs in India will not be successful. I tend to partially agree with him. If you look carefully most of the big operators like Airtel have already outsourced most of their operations whether network, IT infrastructure etc. to the Ericcson’s and IBM’s of this world. In essence, they are already operating like an MVNO. However, for operators who are small and the upcoming players with new UASL licenses, MVNOs could help them catapult into the big league faster.

The question is how many will survive when the race is on?

Sameer Tikoo

Saturday, January 3, 2009

GHAJINI: A convoluted social romantic thriller ?

First things first. I find it difficult to rate or classify GHAJINI. At the end of the movie you ask yourself whether it's a good, bad or an ugly movie ? I'm not sure how many of us can easily classify this movie. The movie gravitates from exceptional to pretty ordinary. It's like a huge wave with big crest and troughs. However, it leaves you with a void. Does it have a social message ? Is it a romantic thriller ? And maybe more such questions.

Adapted from a Tamil movie the remake works well in terms of the plot. Quite obviously the storyline packs a punch. This is what keeps the audience engrossed through the better part of the movie. However, the screenplay seems to be patchy. Perhaps, the director wanted to deliver a strong social message but the screenplay does not allow a cohesion of social message, revenge and romance. At times you feel like you are back in '80s era where any amount of villains cannot defeat the hero (likes of BigB & Dharam paaji). Some sequences like hero pierced with an iron rod standing up and killing the villian are back after a long time !! Takes me back to my school days.
Of the cast Sanjay Singhania (Aamir Khan) as head of mobile phone company and an amnesia stricken patient is quite convincing. But, we do not associate just good with Aamir. Aamir has set such high standards that a good performance from him is just not acceptable. It's akin to Sachin Tendulkar in cricket. When people expect century every time he goes out a good fifty will just look ordinary. In recent movies like Taare Zameen Par or RDB we have witnessed some effortless performances from Aamir even though the role was not purely author backed. This could also be due to the fact that audience tastes have changed over a period of time. Somehow with so much real violence people are averse to reel violence. It's quite refreshing to see Aamir as Sanjay Singhania the romantic. At times you feel like the movie should continue with Aamir the romantic. The same cannot be said of Aamir the amnesia patient out to take revenge. Who cares about the 8 pack body ?

The sizzler on-screen is none else than Kalpana- Sanjay Singhania's love interest (Asin). What a refreshing performance from the Bollywood debutante. She is very convincing, confident and has an excellent screen presence. And on top of it she has the X-factor to carry her forward. She has played her character (Kalpana) as Aamir's significant other to perfection. She is comfortable both as a bubbly, vivacious, young aspiring model and also as a social do good er.

Of the support cast Ghajini (Pradeep Rawat) the villian who kills Kalpana (Asin) and causes amnesia (short term memory loossssss in pure haryanvi:-)) to Sanjay (Aamir) is ok. When you see this performance you realize the value of the likes of Amrish Puri and other veterans of yore. After a long time you have a movie title in the name of a villian. Again i wonder why is it so ?
The others like Sunita (Jiah Khan) as a medical student studying Sanjay (Aamir) as an amnesia patient and Satvir as boss of the ad agency where Kalpana works are quite ok.

There are some very poignant scenes in the movie like the one where Aamir & Asin enter their footsteps in the new house which will remain etched in your memory. These are the crests i was refering to earlier. The music from A.R. Rehman is again patchy. Except for a few tracks you are left wondering whether it's really coming from the Rehman stable. This is one of the big troughs.

Finally, what do you take from this movie. This is where perhaps the biggest weakness of Ghajini lies. The climax is obviously very cliched. The message is convoluted. We agree that Kalpana died while supporting a social cause - preventing young girls from organ trading scandal, but is revenge the way to even out things ? This is not a "hulki phulki" movie. You have spent 3 hrs of your precious time on a heavy dose stuff but Mr. A.R.Murugadoss (Director) you have left the audience confused.

Sameer Tikoo