MyCanvas!

Conversation with Australian PM

2012-01-05T20:13:00.000-08:00

It was a pleasant surprise to watch a very interesting and enjoyable conversation – a conversation between Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard and former India cricketer turned TV commentator Ravi Shastri.
And what a place to have this talk- in the commentary box at Sydney cricket Ground (SCG) on the occasion of 100th test match at SCG and also a pink day. This is the day when everyone at SCG wears pink to pledge their support toward the McGrath foundation for breast cancer.

The conversation lasted about 10 minutes but the impact was big. First Ravi talked about the current state of the match and Julia mentioned that she is still learning about the game. It was interesting to know that Australian government is spending $186 million (Australian dollars I guess!) on the redevelopment of SCG in preparation for the 2015 cricket world cup in Australia. An immediate question posed by Ravi was when the ground will be completed to which Julia responded we will not let the grass grow; it will be done before the world cup deadline – a typical Aussie style punching response.

Next Julia acknowledged the contribution of the huge Indian diaspora in Australia (this must have felt good to the Indian community particularly in these days when hate crime is seeing a rise again). When Ravi talked about the great rivalry between India and Australia on the cricket field Julia quickly veered the conversation towards how much India & Australia have in common – democracy, language and past history. Julia then mentioned about her focus on the co-operation related to education between the two countries which can strengthen the people to people contact. Quite fittingly, the conversation ended around the great Indian curry. And no surprises that the Australian PM loves Indian food!

What came out from this conversation was the charming personality of the Australian PM. She seemed to be very open, friendly and interested in strengthening the co-operation between the two countries which augurs well for both nations. A lot of credit goes to Ravi Shastri for managing this conversation so well.

On a day when the Indian bowling was mauled at the SCG this was the only bright spot of the day!

About Julia Gillard
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julia_Gillard

About Ravi Shastri
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ravi_Shastri

America's own "Arab Spring"

2011-10-15T15:09:00.000-07:00

As the "Occupy Wall Street" protest enters into 28th day the whole world watches with unabated breath the consequences of this protest. What started out as a small protest in New York City has grown on to the other cities of US. More interestingly, this protest is slowly taking the shape of a global movement having spread across to various cities of Europe, Japan, Australia & New Zealand. Comparisons are already being made to what we have seen this year in the Arab world, Egypt and Anna's anti-corruption movement in India. This makes me wonder whether the ongoing protests will turn out be America's own "Arab spring"?

Occupy Wall Street

Essentially, i see this movement as a common man's expression against corporate greed, economic inequalities, corporate influence on political representatives. In simple terms, the man on the street is crying out loud and clear - Give me my life back! However, the group calls themselves "99 percenters" implying that they belong to the 99% of the people who are suffering from economic inequalities, leaving aside the 1% super rich millionaires. What is unique about this movement is that it is still leaderless, the specific objectives are quite hazy yet it is spreading like wildfire. This is contrast with what we saw recently in India where Anna Hazare led a strong anti corruption movement with a clear objective of parliament ushering in a Lok Pal bill.

In US the dominant feeling is of being let down by the current Obama administration. In Obama, they believed to have a leader who offered great hope & change, one who could restore America's privileged position of pride and prosperity. However, three years down the line with approx 10% unemployment rate and a looming double dip recession Obama's popularity remains low.

What Next?

As the globalisation of this movement is on the anvil it is very interesting to see what shape this movement will eventually take. So far the movement has been largely peaceful barring some clashes reported in Rome. In countries like Greece, Portugal etc., which are literally on the verge of a collapse unless saved by the more stronger EU nations like Germany & France the timing of this movement is significant. Will this lead to a subtle change from capitalist to more socialist policies?

In an expression of solidarity with these protests emanating from US some of the world leaders have already started pointing fingers at US. History is replete with facts that whenever such populist movements have occurred in the other parts of world the US has supported such movements and encouraged regime change. It is almost with blatant glee that some of these nations like China, Venezuela are waiting for the mighty US to taste it's own medicine. It will be very interesting to see the US reaction to this movement- both the people & the government. Will the American's unite for a cause or will the country of "I", "Me", "Myself" give it a cold shoulder? The common man would like to see what steps have been taken to prevent another financial crisis. What judicial amendments can be done to book the guilty? Will the tax payer's money be used to dole out failing banks and other businesses? Will Obama see this as an adversity or opportunity? Can he use this movement to push his agenda on the passage of "Jobs bill" in Congress or will the Republicans use this to corner Obama further? As we are close to entering the election year in US this movement, if sustained, is surely going to influence the outcome.

There's an underlying feeling that this movement should help bring the change which people expected to see with the elevation of Obama to the top post. The role of media is going to be critical. So far the US media has largely shown lot of restraint in the coverage of this event but it will be difficult to keep this event low profile for long. I would not be surprised if this news occupies the headlines for a long time now. Surely, this movement resonates with the common man and has the potential to stir the passions of millions of people. Only time will tell whether "Occupy Wall street" is going to turn out to be America's own "Arab spring"

KBC4- A true Aha experience!

2010-12-09T20:39:00.000-08:00

9 weeks, 36 episodes later KBC4 (for my non-Indian readers this is the 4th season of Indian version of "who wants to be a millionaire") has been a true revelation for me. I have followed all the past 3 seasons of this show but this season has been an absolutely fantastic experience. For me it's been an hour of relaxation after a long day, learning, recreation and perfect entertainment. In fact, I believe that this season the show transformed from a quiz show to an 'experience'.

For me there are some key takeaways from this show which captivated me:

Realizing you dreams

For last 10 years since the show started some millions of people (including myself) have been trying to get onto the 'hot seat' but very few have been lucky. But, people who managed to get in have persevered, getting through various stages and then finally using all their skills to get an opportunity on the 'hot seat'. Ah! the feeling there must be out of the world! However, what was enlightening and exciting was how people fared when the opportunity presented. Were they really prepared to seize the opportunity? Did the big moment get to them? Being face-to-face with a living legend like Big B can itself be nerve wracking, the array of emotions that the people went through, the decision making required (in terms of options & lifelines to choose, quit/not quit etc.)During the questions, handling the pressure situation was really a tough ask. However, people who prevailed like the person who was suffering from polio were really determined to succeed. The women who won 1 crore came from a very conservative & modest background with limited exposure to the outside world. However, she displayed amazing emotional quotient reminiscent of the kid in "Slumdog millionaire" using all her life experiences to prevail. Her performance would motivate millions of women in India to take a big step forward and do whatever it takes to realise their dreams. These are some of the awe inspiring success stories to take forward. Such people, not only, prepared well to get the opportunity but when the opportunity presented they knew how to seize it with both hands. Very few have the ability to deliver the knockout punch and how they did it on national television was a wonderful learning experience. Understanding this cycle of Preparation-->Opportunity-->Delivery is a key determinant of success.

Knowing real India

This time I believe there were more participants from tier 2/3/4 cities or villages. There were more women who reached the hot seat and the average age of participants would have been in thirties (my best guess). In general, the participants sounded very confident, some of them had big ambitions and were determined to show their capability to the world. We heard interesting anecdotes about how someone wants to create energy from husk, do deep research into fisheries to make life of fisherman better or improve the quality of education in remote corners of India. The demeanor of people was very positive. People were comfortable in front of Big B, often interrupting him to say what they wanted to say. Gone was the diffidence you could see a decade ago, no more did we see participants only from big cities. For a week or so we had few stars on the show and it started getting little boring. The personal stories of different participants were so compelling. Thankfully, better sense prevailed on the producers and they let the show run with common people.

What this season showcased was a truly confident and resurgent India. An India which is young, full of ideas, bright talented people buzzing with energy and ready to take on the world. Simply saying, we could see that India has arrived!

Big B

Yes, Big B is still a big takeaway for me from KBC4. I can write reams about one of my idols but what truly amazes me is he simply keeps getting better by the day. With every passing year my respect & love for him grows. His energy level, dedication, commitment and how he conducts himself is inspiring. The ability to make every participant comfortable and then strike a chord is exemplary. Some of his preludes and anecdotes from his experiences were some of the life lessons no book, training or management course would teach you. At 68, what more can you ask from him? His thoughts, actions, body language are in perfect sync. His performance was sublime. He took this show to a new pedestal. God bless him and let us hope & pray he continues to entertain us like this.

Taking a deeper look, every participant who has been on the show has come out a winner. Even the person who had opportunity to win 1 crore but lost is a winner. Contrary as it may sound but true it is!This show is about a life time experience, it is about experiencing the magical moments that you'll cherish forever.
From tomorrow i'm going to miss this amazing Aha experience; my hour of unwinding and bliss!

Hey America – All’s well?

2010-01-17T20:56:00.000-08:00

I’m back in US after a gap of two years and there are few things which I just could not ignore. Some tell tale signs of how US is changing in the wake of Great Depression part –II.

WALMART

Wal-Mart- the world’s largest retailer with revenues of approx $400 billion symbolizes the great consumption economy that US is. I noticed that the tagline in their advertisement has changed from “Always low prices” to “Save Money. Live Better”. Now this change did not happen overnight but I just realized it quite late. This I see as a subtle change in positioning. The emphasis on saving is a huge shift in the consumer’s mindset. The whole US economy thrives on the great American spending. However, this change surely is appropriate for the times we live in. The advertisement also gives a feel of a family shopping at Wal-Mart. This perhaps is a sign of getting emotionally connected with the consumer. Apart from the slogan change Wal-Mart seems to have picked up in the décor of the store, introduced some refreshing changes in the layout and of course, service continues to be good. Of note, is that Wal-Mart seems to have decreased the size of stock keeping units. What this implies is that a smaller size of the same merchandize is now available for purchase. I was quite interested in knowing what the impact of this change has been for Wal-Mart. From the retail surveys it does seem that the change in positioning is working for Wal-Mart. It seems the American consumer does want to save money and is buying into this tagline. Saving & America; I still can’t reconcile to this fact.

SMALL CARS

Well there was a time I could hardly find a small car in US. Now the trend for small cars in US seems to be on the upswing. Gone are the days of huge gas guzzling cars, mini vans and trucks. The average American consumer has become aware of something known as “fuel efficiency” of the car. The spiraling gas prices when the crude oil touched close to $150/barrel in 2008 made the fuel efficiency one of the most popular features to look at. If the Detroit car show is anything to go by, most car manufactures are ready to showcase more small cars in US. The big guns like Ford, Toyota & Hyundai are fighting it out in the small car segment. Even Tata’s Nano is bracing up for entry in US markets in 3 yrs time at an awesome price of $5K. Having said that, it does not mean that suddenly there’s no market for big cars but the change in consumer preferences is significant. With focus on emission cuts through federal policies the small cars are here to stay in US.

SODA

Yes, the quintessential image of an average American holding a big soda and a burger also seems to be changing. I’m amazed to see advertisements from American Health Association advocating Americans to cut down on soda consumption. They do now realize that this is one of the prime reasons for obesity in US. Though the American beverage association continues to refute these claims but the ensuing war of words is quite exciting. At least, the nation is talking about it!

There may be several other perceptible signs about the changing face of America but surely the Great Depression –II has left a huge impact on US. Sometimes I wonder that these are truly character changing signs for a nation. Are these changes permanent or will America return to its true color? I’m also little pained to see that the very essence of America is under threat. The very reasons for which it used to be a dream country don’t seem to be charming anymore. So how will US look like 20 yrs from now? Something like Europe is today – living on past laurels, flattish growth and an ageing country or are we going to see a turnaround?

Let’s see how this great nation responds!

A 20hr flight worth a life

2009-12-25T21:00:00.000-08:00

Have you ever been on a 20 hr flight? And yes, with no breaks, and no transfers. I happened to be on a flight from New Delhi to Newark this weekend which turned out to be a 20 hr journey. But, at the end of it we were left with a strange sense of fulfillment.

“We have a medical emergency on the flight. The flight is being diverted to Stockholm” announced the flight attendant. I woke up as these words started ringing into my ears. My first reaction was a very confusing one. I didn’t know how to react. I was trying to find out what was the medical emergency. At the same time I was disgusted at the thought of more delays on a 14hr flight which had already started with a 3hr delay. As the plane landed in Stockholm I saw a good 6-12” snow covering on the runway. It was pitch dark outside and the landing amidst snow made a great sight. This did help in soothing my ruffled feathers due to the delays. I was even wondering if we could set out and just play with the snow. However, we were instructed to be seated on the plane. I looked around to see the source of the medical emergency. I saw a boy around 5-6 yrs old having respiratory problems. There was a sense of concern and anxiety in general. There were a couple of passengers who were either doctors or had some background in medical emergencies. They were helping the boy. The parents of this boy were, to my surprise, very composed. Soon the paramedics arrived and the boy along with family was taken out. We heard that that the boy was doing better. There was a big applause and a huge sense of relief.

I saw great bonding among people of different countries, communities and diverse background on the plane. People exchanging thoughts on how to treat the medical problem, the need to exercise restraint and have patience, parents pacifying infants and more. How easy it was to unite for a cause? Effortless, I would say. Many of us would have missed important business meetings, connecting flights and much more. However, just to be a part of a life saving experience like this was something very unique. A lot of credit for saving the kid goes to the airlines but it was good to see the people rally around. A human life is still valued and we do think alike even though we are different.

Bringing a smile on your face !

2009-08-13T10:44:00.000-07:00

It was post lunch session – I was feeling slow as a snail. Someone tapped on the door of my office. I looked up and it was Ajay, from our HR department. He had an envelope in his hand. The contents of the envelope seemed a little grumpy to me. I was wondering what was there in the envelope even before the conversation began. The conversation just lasted a few seconds. He just said the instructions were on the back of the envelope. I read the instructions and started acting on it. I called one person into my office, her name was Sheetal. Sheetal sat quietly, inquisitiveness obvious in her eyes. I handed over the envelope to her and asked her to open it. As she opened the envelope I could see a wave of emotions. From inquisitiveness to fear, fear to excitement and excitement to a beaming smile, smile turned into joy, joy into happiness and then a sense of gratitude.

Sheetal had just won an IPOD for being the most outstanding performer in the team!

It was an amazing experience for me. Such an array of emotions, visible from very close quarters, left me astounded. Sometimes we try very hard to bring similes on the face of our friends, family, and colleagues but fail to do so. Here I was, witnessing palpable joy on the face of a person from a small gift – an IPOD
I was wondering what was responsible for making Sheetal so happy. Was it the IPOD? Was it the sense of achievement or a feeling of recognition? Yes, you never know what makes a person feel happy. Happiness could mean different things to different people.

The thought that came to my mind was “positive surprise”. Many times people anticipate they will get rewarded for something that they have done. But, to get something positive when it is unexpected is a different feeling altogether.

Ask yourself when was the last time you got a “positive surprise”? Just try to relive the moment.

And how about giving a positive surprise to someone today.

Go hug your wife when you return home. Spend 30 minutes of quality time with your parents. Take your team out for a coffee when there is no event to celebrate. Prepare morning tea for your family. Take a half day leave from office and catch an afternoon movie with your wife.

The possibilities are endless. Just be the harbinger of positive surprises and feel the difference.

Are we heading towards an unflat world?

2009-06-07T14:41:00.000-07:00

In the recent past, I have heard this question cropping up at various forums. As a rejoinder to Thomas Friedman’s bestseller “The world is Flat”, people have suddenly started talking about the “unflat” world. The question certainly is relevant given some of the events across the world. Obama initiated tax measures favoring companies who retain jobs in US. We have also witnessed a backlash in Australia against the Indian students. Having observed these recent events my very simple and short answer to the “unflat” world query is NO. To substantiate my argument I would like to go back to the original premise of how the world became flat. As Thomas Friedman highlighted in his classic, the world became flat essentially due to following:

1. Technology
2. Tools, Skills, Processes
3. People (read BRICS) with emphasis on CHINDIA

And since the book was written there are many more flatteners like You Tube, Facebook, 3G, just to highlight a few. Now, for the world to unflatten, you really need to undo the above. For a moment, just give a thought to the above flatteners. Is it really possible to undo the above? No, not really. At the most what you can do is have some curbs like the H1B visa in USA, tighten the immigration rules, protect sensitive sectors like Defence, Banking, change regulations related to import/export. The economic crisis may lead to a slew of protectionist measures in the short-term. However, the longer it continues more counterproductive it will be for countries like USA.

Take for instance the recent happenings in Australia. The Indian students are being attacked as the common man in Australia feels the pinch of job losses. The students are being attacked by the people who are hit hardest - part timers who work at cafes, gas stations and other stores. The Indian students are competing directly with this class of Australian workforce and have thus become prime targets. And this reaction, though extreme, is natural. If I go back to the Maslow’s hierarchy, these people are unable to meet their physiological needs and hence the extreme reaction. Should the Australian govt. send back Indian (also students from other countries) students? Now that would be a real un-flattener. But, does it make economic sense.

Let’s take a look at the following data.

Around 100,000 Indian students went to Australia last year (more than USA). In the process, they added $12 billion to the Australian economy. Can Australia afford to let go this amount? The point is that there are countries (US, Australia, UK, Canada etc) that have become so flat that their survival is now dependent on being flat. They have gone way ahead to undo what has already happened. And this flat world is not necessarily bad for them.

What America and other developed nations need is a process of nation building. A lot of introspection and action is needed by the developed world to stay competitive in the new world order. The nation needs to move up the value chain. This means more investment in science and technology, energy conservation and alternate sources of energy. It also means continuous upgradation of skills, a revisit of the education system.

I also advocate adaptability as a core skill to acquire not only at a personal level, but also, for a nation. To exemplify, let’s look at India. Not so many years ago we were an agriculture dependent economy. The fear of monsoon was so huge that it would make or mar our fortunes. In a few years we have now become a service oriented economy (~60% of GDP) with agriculture contributing less than 20% of GDP. Twenty years ago hardly a few of us would have seen a computer. We have invested in education, technology, language skills and associated infrastructure to create an army of skilled engineers, technicians and call center professionals. Even in this deep economic crisis we are growing at around 5-6% (second only to China). Truly, India has arrived and how!

The developed world now needs the world to stay flat now, than ever before. The world economies are more connected than they ever were. In a globalized world, organizations cannot afford to work in an isolated environment. Organizations look forward to provide value to their customers by producing the right product, at right cost, at right location and selling the same to the right market at right price. A very simple example I would like to quote is of a mobile phone e.g. Nokia –perhaps a device without which our lives are unimaginable. If you look at the value chain of a mobile phone, the R&D could be done in Finland, Manufacturing in India, Sales & Marketing in respective markets across the globe and service wherever the phone is sold. Imagine doing this in an unflat world. This could mean Nokia doing all the activities of a value chain in a single country say Finland. Is this feasible?

The choice for America and other developed nations is clear; either you remain in a walled garden oblivious of what is happening around you or you move out and embrace the new world order with open arms.

Sameer Tikoo

Saluting Indian Democracy

2009-05-17T00:36:00.000-07:00

Finally, it's over. The great Indian election saga comes to an end. The 15th General elections was a mammoth exercise and the world is amazed how we continue to deliver smoothly election after election. Indeed, the enormity of operational scale involved is mind-boggling. This is Indian democracy at it's vibrant best.

And what a verdict Indian electorate has delivered. Against all expectations, we have got a clear mandate for Cong+. The credit for this should go as much to Rahul Gandhi, Manmohan Singh & team as to the BJP for failing to focus the campaign on the right agenda. Consider the backdrop of these elections; the world economy at an all time low since the "Great Depression", Indian GDP growth rate on a downward spiral(~6%), high unemployment rate(~9%), inflation rate (~1%), stock exchanges hitting rock bottom(BSE <8000)>

Now given this backdrop it's a recipe for a change;you don't have to do really much to get the anti-incumbency vote. But, look at how Congress managed to counter this and come out stronger. This is really an excellent example of turning adversity into opportunity.

So what were the key success factors for Cong+:

1. Rahul Gandhi's focus on reviving the socio-economic plank;making the party stronger at grass root level and connecting to the "aam admi".
2. Youth Factor- Again Rahul, Priyanka and some of the next gen congress leaders like Jyotiraditya, Murli Deora contribute towards a youthful image for the party, More importantly, the young electorate can connect to them and they believe that these leaders can really take the country forward.
2. Manmohan Singh's clean image.
3. Articulating the pro-poor effects of nuclear deal.
4. BJPs inability to focus on issues of development, economy, terrorism during the campaign. They got sucked into personality war between Advani & Manmohan Singh. Often, they were left clarifying on the current & future prime ministerial candidates, endless debates on secularism vs communalism, whether the allies "are" or "are not" with them. Unfortunately, the real issues got buried down.

Now, it’s really up to the Manmohan-Rahul combine to make the best use of this clear mandate. I say Manmohan-Rahul because I believe Rahul will take over in the mid-term. A lot needs to be done regarding the unfinished agenda. Here’s what we can look forward to:
a. PSU disinvestment
b. Increased FDI in Retail, Insurance
c. Halt to Administrative Pricing mechanism in Oil sector?
d. Push to infrastructure projects – Low income housing, Airports, Ports
e. Progress on nuclear deal
f. Reforms in health care
g. Making rural economy stronger and much more.

And what about the BJP now?

Quite clearly, Mr. Advani is headed towards the sunset. An inglorious end to a successful political career. I just think the dessert was missing in what was a sumptuous feast. Now it's really up to the second rung leadership to take front stage. The Vajpayee-Advani era is over. Do the Modi's, Jaitley's et al have in them to face the challenge from the youth brigade. I believe that BJP needs to identify the next "Vajpayee-Advani" combo and to me it looks like "Jaitley-Modi" sounds good. The pairing hierarchy is important. Yes, contrary to what is being projected i think Jaitley has to be the face of BJP leaving the core backstage to Modi. No party in India can come to power on the basis of hardline religious or sectarian agenda. And this is because most Indians are secular in nature. India just loves Centre; Centre right or Centre left is tolerable but swings to the extreme are intolerable.

The Indian voter has delivered a very simple and crisp message - "Good governance pays" and it doesn't matter who delivers that - Congress, BJP, JD-U or anyone else as long as it is delivered. And this governance has to be visible both at the local as well as national level.
Wake up political parties the Indian voter just got more demanding!!

Sameer

MVNOs in India: Spicing up the Telecom Market

2009-03-07T14:10:00.000-08:00

Introduction
Economic slowdown, meltdown, recession, depression, and stimulus packages - these are some of the most popular keyword searches these days on the Internet. Amidst all this we know that India added 15 million+ mobile subscribers in January’09. This is an all time high subscriber additions in India and perhaps the world in a single month. The story has been similar for Q3 2008 with around 9-10 million subscribers added each month. The scorching pace at which the India telecom story marches ahead is a silver lining amidst dark clouds hanging over the overall economy.

The department of telecommunications (DoT), on Feb 25th 209 permitted Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNO) to provide services in India. MVNOs are companies that do not own spectrum or license to offer services. They lease radio frequency from mobile service providers and sell services under their own brand. Essentially, they buy minutes of usage (MOU) in bulk from the service provider (also referred to as mobile network provider or operator). The telecom infrastructure may also be completely leased or the MVNOs can build up their own infrastructure at least partially. In very simple terms the relationship is like a wholesaler & a retailer. The typical value chain of an MVNO is depicted below:
(sorry issues in pasting picture here)

Depending on what they own in the telecom value chain MVNOs can be categorized as following:
a. Full MVNO
Typically, has its own network elements (MSC, HLR, VLR) and performs all other downstream value chain activities like Distribution, Marketing, Cusomer Care (includes billing)
b. Intermediate MVNO
Typically, shares some of the network infrastructure with the service provider and performs all other downstream activities.
c. Thin MVNO
Typically, does not own any network infrastructure. Focus is on leveraging the strengths in distribution and brand management.

Licensing Norms
India’s Telecom Commission has set $17.02 million as the price for MVNO license in India. The Commission also confirms pre-defined fees an operator will have to pay for individual service area of 10% of the amount that UASL holders pay. MVNO licenses for the A category will cost $1 million whereas category B and C circles will be priced at $0.60 million and $0.20 million respectively. MVNOs will also have to pay spectrum charges and a bank guarantee equivalent to 5% of the amount paid by the full network operators.

Now let’s look at the opportunities and the challenges the entry of MVNOs in India could throw up.
Opportunities

Increase in Mobile Penetration
At around 360+ million mobile subscribers the mobile penetration is around 30%. Most developed nations have a penetration close to 100% (a few have more than 100% as well). Given these statistics it is evident that there is still lot of headroom to grow for the telecom service providers. We are already aware that a vast majority of the new subscribers being added are coming from tier2/tier3 cities and rural areas. The argument for MVNOs is that they can help expanding into these markets rapidly. As most MVNO are going to be focused on offering services at attractive prices India could reach its 500 million subscriber target by 2010 pretty early and the tele-density can increase significantly in next few years.

Diversification
For those companies who wanted to venture into telecom but could not do so earlier due to the entry barriers associated with high spectrum cost this could be a golden opportunity. As the international experience shows many MVNOs are companies who have diversified from other businesses leveraging their strong brand, distribution channels and other such strengths. In India too there could be companies from FMCG (e.g. ITC), retail (e.g. Big Bazaar) and other sectors who want to leverage their strong brands, distribution network, understanding of the rural consumers, and past relationships to forge a new connect.

Horizontal & Vertical Integration
In terms of horizontal integration there are opportunities for the existing telecom operators to launch services as MVNOs in areas where they do not have a license or provide services across different technology viz. CDMA operator offering GSM service or GSM operator offering CDMA service.
The telecom ecosystem comprising of handset players (e.g. Nokia, Samsung), service providers (e.g. Airtel), VAS players (OnMobile, 197 communications), OS providers (Microsoft, Google) is itself going through a great game of one-upmanship. The service providers are still holding forte as they are closer to the customers and are the ones who own the so called “pipe” to the customer. Given this, MVNOs offer an opportunity for some of the players in the ecosystem to integrate vertically and venture into service provider’s domain. For instance, the VAS players who have long been unhappy with the revenue sharing agreement with the service providers (70-80% of the VAS revenue is retained by the service provider whereas 20-30% goes to the VAS players. This 20-30% is further distributed among the players which make up the VAS value chain). This really takes the fight into enemy’s camp and could result in strapping of the delicate chord which binds together the players in this ecosystem.

Challenges
Increased Competition
Irrespective of the bonhomie associated with the subscriber growth in India, telecom operators face significant challenges. These are low ARPUs, high CAPEX & OPEX, providing differentiated services at reasonable cost and essentially losing out on competitive advantage. MVNOs are just going to add to these challenges. True, MVNOs may help penetrate the markets further but it will surely lead to a bloody price war. Already, we offer the cheapest tariff in the world at less than 2 cents per minute. How many operators can maintain profitability and sustain that in the long run given that tariffs are surely south bound? And all those who are ready to tell me that 3G is in the offing, time will come when VAS will show its true colors and so on, don’t forget this is an extremely price sensitive market and our next 100 million customers and beyond are going to come from rural areas.

Entry Barriers
Given the licensing norms highlighted above I don’t perceive too many entry barriers from a monetary perspective. However, how do you overcome the “mind barrier”? How many companies would be willing to take the plunge in this economic turmoil in an apparent low margin business?

Strategy & Business Models
Alright let’s hope there are a few brave companies who take the plunge. Now what sort of strategy they should adopt. A mere price leadership or low cost strategy will not be sustainable. And if they come up with a focused or differentiated strategy then which customer segments will they focus on? What kind of different offering they have which the existing service providers don’t have or cannot have? These sort of questions really intrigue me.

Cannibalization
MVNOs will after all be buying airtime in bulk from existing service providers. Hence, there’s always a trusted relationship between the two. However, both are still eating from the same pie. Will this not lead to cannibalization of market share?

Recently, Sunil Mittal said that MVNOs in India will not be successful. I tend to partially agree with him. If you look carefully most of the big operators like Airtel have already outsourced most of their operations whether network, IT infrastructure etc. to the Ericcson’s and IBM’s of this world. In essence, they are already operating like an MVNO. However, for operators who are small and the upcoming players with new UASL licenses, MVNOs could help them catapult into the big league faster.

The question is how many will survive when the race is on?

Sameer Tikoo

GHAJINI: A convoluted social romantic thriller ?

2009-01-03T01:49:00.000-08:00

First things first. I find it difficult to rate or classify GHAJINI. At the end of the movie you ask yourself whether it's a good, bad or an ugly movie ? I'm not sure how many of us can easily classify this movie. The movie gravitates from exceptional to pretty ordinary. It's like a huge wave with big crest and troughs. However, it leaves you with a void. Does it have a social message ? Is it a romantic thriller ? And maybe more such questions.

Adapted from a Tamil movie the remake works well in terms of the plot. Quite obviously the storyline packs a punch. This is what keeps the audience engrossed through the better part of the movie. However, the screenplay seems to be patchy. Perhaps, the director wanted to deliver a strong social message but the screenplay does not allow a cohesion of social message, revenge and romance. At times you feel like you are back in '80s era where any amount of villains cannot defeat the hero (likes of BigB & Dharam paaji). Some sequences like hero pierced with an iron rod standing up and killing the villian are back after a long time !! Takes me back to my school days.
Of the cast Sanjay Singhania (Aamir Khan) as head of mobile phone company and an amnesia stricken patient is quite convincing. But, we do not associate just good with Aamir. Aamir has set such high standards that a good performance from him is just not acceptable. It's akin to Sachin Tendulkar in cricket. When people expect century every time he goes out a good fifty will just look ordinary. In recent movies like Taare Zameen Par or RDB we have witnessed some effortless performances from Aamir even though the role was not purely author backed. This could also be due to the fact that audience tastes have changed over a period of time. Somehow with so much real violence people are averse to reel violence. It's quite refreshing to see Aamir as Sanjay Singhania the romantic. At times you feel like the movie should continue with Aamir the romantic. The same cannot be said of Aamir the amnesia patient out to take revenge. Who cares about the 8 pack body ?

The sizzler on-screen is none else than Kalpana- Sanjay Singhania's love interest (Asin). What a refreshing performance from the Bollywood debutante. She is very convincing, confident and has an excellent screen presence. And on top of it she has the X-factor to carry her forward. She has played her character (Kalpana) as Aamir's significant other to perfection. She is comfortable both as a bubbly, vivacious, young aspiring model and also as a social do good er.

Of the support cast Ghajini (Pradeep Rawat) the villian who kills Kalpana (Asin) and causes amnesia (short term memory loossssss in pure haryanvi:-)) to Sanjay (Aamir) is ok. When you see this performance you realize the value of the likes of Amrish Puri and other veterans of yore. After a long time you have a movie title in the name of a villian. Again i wonder why is it so ?
The others like Sunita (Jiah Khan) as a medical student studying Sanjay (Aamir) as an amnesia patient and Satvir as boss of the ad agency where Kalpana works are quite ok.

There are some very poignant scenes in the movie like the one where Aamir & Asin enter their footsteps in the new house which will remain etched in your memory. These are the crests i was refering to earlier. The music from A.R. Rehman is again patchy. Except for a few tracks you are left wondering whether it's really coming from the Rehman stable. This is one of the big troughs.

Finally, what do you take from this movie. This is where perhaps the biggest weakness of Ghajini lies. The climax is obviously very cliched. The message is convoluted. We agree that Kalpana died while supporting a social cause - preventing young girls from organ trading scandal, but is revenge the way to even out things ? This is not a "hulki phulki" movie. You have spent 3 hrs of your precious time on a heavy dose stuff but Mr. A.R.Murugadoss (Director) you have left the audience confused.

Sameer Tikoo

Fighting terror: Time to take fight into enemy's camp ?

2008-12-06T05:13:00.000-08:00

Well, here are a few thoughts from yours truly. This comes from someone who has "smelled" terror from close quarters. That story i'll defer for some other day, for now let me focus on my current thoughts on tackling the menace of terrorism. So here it goes:

Dismantle the terror infrastructure

Be proactive. We have known for long that terror camps exist in POK but we have done nothing. Absolutely nothing ! It’s time to take action. Destroy those terror camps run by LET, Al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations. This action does not require a war to be waged with Pakistan. This has to be a specific operation in connivance with the governments of US & Pakistan.

Crack the whip on internal support system

Let’s face it point blank. No militant organization can attack us without internal support and logistics. So whether it is SIMI, other radical organizations or specific individual elements the government needs to take tough action against them. A strong signal must go that nobody can think of supporting terrorists from India’s soil. This calls for strong anti-terror laws. You may call it POTA or something else but the need of the hour is to have strong law to defeat the menace of terrorism. So for starters just hang Afzal Guru.

Use of Technology

We need use of advanced technology to strengthen our infrastructure against terror. This would mean advanced devices for surveillance, RF equipment, central monitoring and tracking devices. This would also require hiring more specialists in this domain like computer scientists, hackers etc. We can’t fight terror with old methodologies and obsolete technologies.

Internal Security Fund

I don’t know what will be the appropriate nomenclature but we definitely need to set aside more funds to upgrade our anti –terror infrastructure. This fund can be used to modernize our security agencies, and police force, upgrade our weaponry and defense systems.

Global Response

In this world of globalization, we need to have more collaboration to fight terror jointly. This would require a framework to ensure that intelligence is shared between investigating agencies across countries. So the American, Russian, British, Indian and other investigative agencies need to come together to define effective mechanism to share intelligence to prevent terror attacks.

Single National Identity
Every Indian national need to have one identity card let it be called NIC – National Identity Card. This card should have all the personal details. With the number associated with this card it should b e possible to retrieve all the relevant information from the database for identification or any other transaction.

Sameer Tikoo

A rejoinder to my last article on "Financial Meltdown"

2008-11-16T12:18:00.000-08:00

A few of my readers felt that i was too pessimistic in my last article on "Financial Meltdown" and also added that i should have offered some suggestions on how to tackle the crisis. I felt humbled by their comments and so i share a few thoughts on initiating a response to resolve the crisis. Between my last article and now a great event has happened, Barack Obama- a sign of great hope and change is the President elect of USA. Though we understand he does not have a magic wand to deal with the crisis but the whole world looks up to him.

Here are my thoughts:
Global Response
A syncronized global response from central banks of major economies is essential to cut interest rates and increase liquidity into the system. Besides, we need a unified mechanism to oversee the global financial markets. In addition, a uniform accounting policy is required which is to be audited periodically by a global auditing corporation comprising of representives across countries.

Cut Taxes and increase Government Spending
Yes, i'm in strong favour of reducing income and/or other taxes. This can be a temporary step but i fell an essential one. We need to leave more money in the hand of common man at this time.
Coupled with tax cuts government needs to increase spending on infrastructure to boost employment. Besides, infrastructure it may also be a good idea to recruit in sectors where goverment feels the need to hire for anticipated growth e.g. Banking, Education.

More reforms
The Indian GDP growth estimates have already been lowered to around 7%. If we are not aggressive on reforms then we may well fall short of this target. In order to grow at 9% or more we really need to take a hard look at sectors which can be opened up further. Sectors like Oil & Gas, Healthcare, Education, Retail, Biotechnology do provide an opportunity.

Increase in trade between emerging economies
Currently, G-20 countries account for around 80% of the world trade. However, we need to look beyond G-20. If there is a need to introduce new trade pacts which ease up trade between smaller countries then so be it. Make the reginal economies stronger. We know the biggest consumer in the world, USA cannot be ignored but the need of the hour is to increase trade between smaller reginoal blocks e.g Asia & Latin America. Gulf represents a wonderful opportunity too. For once, Gulf countries should be willing to look beyond oil.

Arrest the decline of rupee
RBI has already intervened and solld dollars to check the declining rupee but more needs to be done. This has resulted in our forex reserves reducing from a high of $314.62 billion (Rs15.6 trillion) in May to around $250 billion. However, an appreciating and stable rupee is much needed to send the right signals to the FII community who may be looking at the right opportunity to re-enter particularly when the markets seem to be finding a bottom. Once the FIIs start buying stocks this will help rupee to appreciate and perhaps we may not need to sell dollars from our forex kitty.

Cut the CxOs compensation
The CEOs salary do come under a scanner when something like this happens but unfortunately the top guns fail miserably here. The Board of most companies seems to be very weak in administering CEO compensation although much has been said about it. The ground reality is that not much action is visible. I was just reading that Larry Ellison (Oracle) took approx 195 million as compensation last year. Back home Anil Ambani takes around 48 crores. Now what i don't understand is that the same CEOs (especially true of US CEOs) are the first to think of layoffs as the first recourse to cost cutting. And the people who are laid off will be mostly junior to mid level workers. Ironical isn't it ?

At the end, all i hope for is that a year from now or before, i would like to write on the revival of current economic crisis - "Great Depression 2.0" and how India emerged stronger from this crisis.
Till then Dasvidaniya !!

Sameer Tikoo

The financial meltdown: Are you ready for change ?

2008-10-31T11:07:00.000-07:00

It's been around one and a half month since the news about the fall of Lehmann brothers. That news itself was astounding to put it very mildly. What followed has been a nightmare given that many more financial icons have gone bust, few countries are on the verge of bankruptcy (Iceland, Pakistan, Ukraine, Belarus etc). Many of us do not have a first hand account of the "Great Depression" in 1929 but from what we can "Google" the comparison is inevitable though unwarranted. However, the big difference today is as Thomas Friedman says "The world is Flat". In a global economy the decoupling theory just doesn't seem to be working. All the major economies (US, Europe, Japan, Chindia) seem like four wheels of a car - so interdependent on one another. The biggest aftermath of this financial meltdown could well be the way we have known America to be. I believe this is an amazingly disruptive event in the history of US. The US economy will shrink, the political clout will reduce; the financial crisis may well signal the beginning of the end of USA as an economic superpower. I believe we are in a transient stage of economic power shift to CHINDIA.
Coming to India, we too are feeling the pain. The rupee is at its lowest rate, the stock markets just hit a new low few days ago, the Assocham news report that 25% employees will be laid off in India is disconcerting and the consumer confidence is at an all time low. However, on the positive side inflation is reducing (10.68% as on date), the interest rates are bound to reduce, crude has reached around $66 from a high of ~$148.
How really do we survive ?
First of all, we need to value the money we spend in corporate business just like our own savings. Let me elaborate with an example; When we shop for personal goods like car, mobile, clothes, AC , other household goods etc..don't we bargain to get the best deal. We really want value for our money. Now equate this with corporate spending. Are you spending the corporate money in the same way ? Do you think twice before spending on entertainment, office expenses, group lunch, conferences, phone calls etc. ? Are we looking at value for money in the corporate scenario ? I trust many of us don't !
The other things are quite simple. The good old fashioned socialism is back in vogue. Moderation is the key. Get into cash conservation mode. Just defer that vacation plan or a car purchase. Somehow, i feel that we have outgrown some of our own desires. We need three cars when there is a need for one, three homes - one for living, one future home and one as investment, need to change the mobile phone every six months (sprinkled with Blackberry & iphone), three or four vacations in a year etc.. etc...the list goes on.

My friends the whole crisis is a manifestation of corporate & consumer greed !! Alas, we have come a full circle! At this time i can only remember the phrase "..This too shall pass" and i leave you with this beautiful song..http://in.youtube.com/watch?v=6olU1D70eys

Sameer Tikoo

"Ashes" of the modern era: A preview

2008-10-08T12:45:00.000-07:00

A few hours from now India vs Australia test cricket series shall commence. Already a lot has happened before the series begins. The biggest news, of course, being the retirement of India's most successful captain - Sourav Ganguly, after the test series. I feel that Sourav has taken a very wise decision and set a great precedent. He has again shown great leadership skills and led from the front. For me Sourav's captaincy was the turning point of the Indian cricket. The kind of positive aggresion he created, the ability to make the team play like a cohesive unit and the way he backed up the junior cricketers like Sehwag, Yuvraj, Bhajji etc. at that point of time changed the face of Indian cricket. Before Sourav's era, the team was a bunch of individuals who were more obsessed with records resulting in flashes of individual brilliance. Sourav taught us how to win and make winning a habit ! Of the fab four, if you ask me whose contribution is greatest to the Indian cricket, undoubtedly it is Sourav Ganguly, though i'm a huge fan of Sachin's mastery, Rahul's composure and Laxman's class. As Rahul Dravid famously said "..First there is God on off side and then there's Sourav.." This holds good not only for his batting on the off side but also for his leadership skills. Sourav, may you bid adieu on a high note !

Now back to the "Ashes" of the modern era, Gavaskar-Border series. The pre-series verbal volleys seem to be largely muted which is very much against a typical Australian side. Obviously, without Warne, Mcgrath and Gilchrist this team is weaker than the teams that have toured India for the last 7-8 years. However, they are still the world champions. Their strength is their strong fast bowling line up with Lee spearheading the attack. The argument that they have a very weak spin attack does not matter much because we all know what happened to Warne in India. Given the venues where the matches are going to be played should be spin friendly except Mohali, the Aussies are at a disadvantage. They would rely heavily on the batting prowess of Hayden, Hussey & Clarke to counter the spin attack from India. I believe Clarke & Hussey are the one's to watch out for in this series. The Australian strategy would also be to dry up the runs for Indian stroke-players especially the likes of Sehwag. It might well turn out to be a test of endurance for Indian batsmen who like to get the runs in boundary's.

From an Indian standpoint i see an over dependence on the spin duo to get 20 wickets. Besides, the Australians have been playing them for a long time and have got quite used to them. I'm sure they are still a handful though. However, it would have been good to pick up Piyush Chawla in the side. A third spinner with a certain novelty factor could prove to be quite useful. From a batting perspective, the fab four would be under tremendous pressure to deliver, given their showing in the Sri Lanka series. I think Sehwag & Bhajji hold the key for India. A few more hours for the gruelling battle to begin.
Let me stick my neck out and predict a result....it's 2-1 to India !!

Sameer

My first blog !

2008-09-06T17:31:00.000-07:00

Never been there....never done that !! just heard about it...that's my experience about blogging thus far! So why am i interested in blogging ? My interest in blogging is related to the fact that i could never make a career out of what i wanted. As i grew up there were two things which i wanted to pursue viz cricket and/or journalism. But as happens with mere mortals like me i ended up doing something very different-telecom software engineering. Blogging i thought, was an opportunity for me to start writing - a platform to vent your feelings about anything & everything under the sun.
So at last, here i'm getting hooked on to the world of blogging !!
I just hope i'm able to keep this going and make it exciting enough for my readers.
Till my next blog..Good Bye!!
Sameer Tikoo